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The 47th US President
Harris gains ground as 2024 race intensifies
The first debate between Harris and Trump is due to take place on September 10.
Harris takes lead in 3 swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Following Trump's 2016 victory, the S&P 500 surged 21.5% in the subsequent year. However, the "Trump trade" effect was brief, lasting only one month after the election.
The United States will hold its 60th quadrennial presidential election on November 5 this year to elect the 47th U.S. President.
Kamala Harris, who was endorsed by President Biden in July, has quickly gained ground on Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in recent polls, making the 2024 presidential race highly competitive.
Democrats
Recent developments indicate that Harris has been gaining momentum, particularly in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. New polls reveal strong support among Democrats for the younger and dynamic Harris, who has been actively campaigning at a rapid pace in swing states this week.
Harris has outlined a primary focus of her presidency on uplifting the middle class, pledging to implement tax cuts for this group while also enhancing housing and social care. Additionally, she has emphasized gun control and reproductive rights, two issues that have been central to her campaign as Vice President.
Additionally, she has emphasized gun control and reproductive rights, two issues that have been central to her campaign as Vice President.
In a strategic move, Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz, known for his pragmatic and effective leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and in managing political divisions, brings a proven track record of winning elections in a swing state. By choosing a Midwesterner like Walz, Harris aims to broaden the Democratic ticket's appeal to both urban and rural voters.
A Trump administration
Following Trump's 2016 victory, the S&P 500 surged 21.5% in the subsequent year. However, the "Trump trade" effect was brief, lasting only one month after the election.
Trump's economic agenda includes tax cuts likely to benefit the wealthy, tariff increases that could spark a trade war, and immigration restrictions that might push inflation higher. His policies emphasize lowering corporate tax rates, deregulation, boosting domestic energy production, and encouraging capital investment and industrial activity.
International Implications: China and U.S. Trade Relations
On the international front, concerns over a possible second term for Donald Trump have heightened anxieties regarding U.S. protectionist policies, particularly in relation to China. A Trump victory could lead to increased trade pressures on China, potentially isolating its economy further from the U.S. and putting additional strain on its domestic growth.
Despite these trade tensions, Trump's approach may include positive elements such as tax cuts and more flexible regulations, which could boost U.S. growth but also contribute to inflation. Additionally, both Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, have advocated for a weaker dollar to support U.S. exports, especially with anticipated interest rate cuts on the horizon.
Upcoming debates
Markets will be closely watching the following debates that will provide more clarity.
September 16 - First presidential debate in San Marcos, Texas.
September 25 - Vice-presidential debate in Easton, Pennsylvania.
October 1 - Presidential debate in Petersburg, Virginia.
October 9 - Presidential debate in Salt Lake City, Utah.
