All eyes on us data as gold hits new highs

Global markets opened the day digesting a wave of economic data and continued geopolitical pressure, particularly from the deepening rift between the United States and China. While stronger-than-expected UK figures lifted sentiment early on, caution returned as investors braced for key US inflation and sentiment data, with concerns about long-term stability in US markets keeping risk appetite in check.

European Markets

The UK delivered a string of positive surprises across the board. GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month (vs. 0.1% expected), while yearly growth reached 1.4%, beating forecasts of 0.9%. Industrial production jumped 1.5% MoM, and manufacturing output surged 2.2%, reversing last month’s declines.

Despite the upbeat data, EUR/GBP remained largely unchanged, suggesting that global macro risks are overpowering regional data momentum.

Currencies

In the US, the dollar index fell below 100, marking its weakest level since July 2023, even as Treasury yields continued to climb. The 10-year yield approached 4.48%, reflecting a broad sell-off in US bonds amid uncertainty surrounding trade, inflation, and economic leadership.

This rare divergence — a weaker dollar alongside higher yields — points to rising distrust in US assets, as investors pivot toward safer currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, both of which hit multi-year highs.

Markets are on edge ahead of two major US data releases:

• The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show price pressures building again, with core PPI forecast at 0.3%, up from -0.1% in February.
  
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is forecast to drop to 54.0, down from 57.0, a sign that American consumers are increasingly wary about the outlook.
  

Commodities

• Gold prices surged past $3,200/oz, holding near record highs, driven by the weaker dollar and safe-haven flows.
  
• Oil prices fell back, with Brent at $63.13 and WTI at $60.11, both near four-year lows, as demand concerns grow.