Gold’s breaking more than records

Trade Tension

The geopolitical landscape shifted again after the White House imposed punitive tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese imports, including medical equipment. In a swift and symbolic move, Hong Kong suspended outbound postal deliveries to the U.S., intensifying the standoff. Meanwhile, China’s cancellation of pending Boeing aircraft orders signals that diplomatic talks remain stalled.

Commodities

Gold surged nearly 2% on the day, pushing through a fresh record high above $3,296 per ounce. The move reflects broad risk aversion driven by rising uncertainty across major economies and persistent trade tensions.

Today’s U.S. retail sales and industrial production numbers, along with Powell’s evening speech, may shape short-term gold volatility. Investors appear increasingly focused on gold’s role as a defensive anchor rather than a purely inflation-driven play.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, pulling back to multi-week lows. Traders are responding to tariff headlines and anticipation of weaker U.S. economic data.

• EUR/USD pushed higher above 1.1350, supported by a fresh wave of dollar selling and a lack of progress in U.S.–EU trade relations.
  
• GBP/USD climbed to its strongest level since October 2024, shrugging off a softer-than-expected UK CPI report. Headline inflation came in at 2.6% YoY (vs. 2.7% forecast), while core inflation steadied at 3.4%, slightly easing market fears of further tightening by the Bank of England.
  

What’s Next

Key macro drivers today include:

• U.S. Retail Sales (March)
  
• U.S. Industrial Production
  
• Bank of Canada rate decision (rates expected to remain unchanged)
  

Volatility across commodities and currencies could pick up later in the session, especially if U.S. consumer data underperforms or Powell hints at recalibrating policy expectations.