The US Dollar Index is awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision

The Federal Reserve meeting on March 22 will determine the direction of a basket of currencies against the US Dollar

By Laila Eid | @Laila Eid | 21 March 2023

US Dollar Index is awaiting the Federal Reserve-20230321-114109
  • The movement of the US Dollar Index will be determined based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision

  • The Federal Reserve is currently uncertain about whether to raise or maintain interest rates

  • The psychological and significant support level for the index is 100.00 points

Markets are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision

The bank is currently undecided on whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as indicated by CME polls, to curb inflation, or whether to maintain interest rates, affected by the current banking crisis that markets are experiencing. However, only 26% of the polls are in favor of this decision.

Important technical points for the US Dollar Index in the short and medium-term

The index fell below the 104.00-point level and extended the decline to the 103.00 level. It is possible to extend the decline to test the main support levels around 100.00 points. However, if the index succeeds in rising from current levels, it may face resistance levels at 104.00, which, if exceeded, may face resistance at 105.66. It is important to exceed this level to prove the intention of the rise and its extension to levels of 107.80, which, if surpassed, may contribute to the continuation of the rise to levels of 109.50.

As for the medium-term technical outlook for the index, it is currently forming a head and shoulders pattern, which is a negative technical pattern that may complete if the index breaks below the 100.00-point support level, which is also a psychological support area. If it remains below this level, the decline may extend to levels of 97.80 and then 95.00 points, but this may take weeks to achieve, and it is a scenario that may occur. However, as long as the index maintains the 100.00-point support levels, it's a positive sign for it in the medium and long term, which supports the scenario of rising to test the resistance level of 106.00, representing the right shoulder of the pattern. If the index surpasses this level, and prices stabilize, it may support the extension of the rise to test levels of 107.70, which, if surpassed, may contribute to the further rise to levels of 110.00 points.

3-21-2023 dollar