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Global Macro Analysis
The latest financial, market & economic analysis
A year after "Liberation Day", global trade looks bruised - not broken
One year after President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, the feared collapse in global trade has not materialized. The shock was real, but the actual economic damage proved smaller than many expected, thanks to exemptions, delayed implementation, trade deals and a global supply chain that adapted faster than the headlines suggested.
2 Apr 2026, 08:50
Oil market between options market and supply concerns
Brent crude closed yesterday at $103.76 per barrel, up 5.42% in a single day and a staggering 47.88% over the past month. With Middle East tensions, Russian supply disruptions, and record options positioning, the market is grappling with risks that could easily push prices into uncharted territory. Here’s a deeper look at the forces at play.
27 Mar 2026, 11:41
Fed faces a new test as war and oil reshape the rates expectations
The Federal Reserve is entering a far more complicated phase of its policy cycle. What once looked like a gradual move toward rate cuts has shifted into a wait-and-see stance, as rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions begin to reshape inflation expectations.
25 Mar 2026, 10:01
Could geopolitical tensions in the Middle East delay the path of rate cuts?
The Federal Reserve heads into this week’s meeting facing a more complicated policy backdrop, as the conflict in the Middle East revives inflation risks and forces markets to rethink the path for US interest rates. What had been a debate over when cuts might begin is increasingly turning into a tougher question: whether the Fed will be able to cut at all this year.
17 Mar 2026, 09:33
ECB rate hike bets move closer as inflation risks are rising again
The European Central Bank is facing a renewed inflation test as the Iran war pushes energy markets back into focus and revives memories of the region’s 2022 price shock. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said a policy response may be closer than investors assume, while President Christine Lagarde stressed the ECB will not allow the latest conflict to trigger another damaging inflation spiral across the euro zone.
11 Mar 2026, 09:14
Weak trade balance reinforces rate hold in New Zealand
Last week, Governor Anna Breman signaled that the economy has room to recover this year without reigniting inflation, reinforcing the central bank’s patient stance. The RBNZ kept its cash rate unchanged and stressed that policy needs to remain accommodative for now. Following those comments, markets sharply scaled back expectations of an imminent hike, with investors now seeing only a small chance of the first increase before December.
26 Feb 2026, 09:33
2025 was messy — the U.S. economy still grew
Stronger consumer spending and a surge in AI investment powered the American economy through a year marked by tariffs, job cuts and political upheaval.
20 Feb 2026, 07:57
OPEC+ control and geopolitical risk keep oil resilient in Q1
Brent should remain supported in Q1 as OPEC+ actively manages supply and geopolitical tensions keep risk pricing elevated. However, softer demand and improving fuel efficiency are likely to cap rallies, keeping the market rangebound.
21 Jan 2026, 13:00
Cooling inflation supports steady eurozone growth
The eurozone enters the first quarter of 2026 with cautious optimism. After navigating supply shocks and a period of elevated inflation in recent years, economic growth has stabilised, remaining steady if unspectacular.
21 Jan 2026, 13:00
Gold consolidation paves the way for new highs in 2026
Central bank buying, falling real yields and heightened geopolitical tensions remain the three dominant forces shaping the gold market, supporting prices into 2026 and reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge.
21 Jan 2026, 13:00