Nvidia record quarter still leaves investors asking how long the AI boom can run

The numbers were not the problem

The quarter itself was very strong. Nvidia reported revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year earlier and 20% from the previous quarter. Data-centre revenue, still the heart of the AI story, reached $75.2 billion, up 92% year over year. GAAP’s net income rose to $58.3 billion, compared with $18.8 billion a year earlier.

Source: Full Ratio

Hyperscalers spending remains the core story

The biggest support for Nvidia is still the scale of AI infrastructure spending. Nvidia argues that the AI data-centre buildout is still early. Jensen Huang described the expansion of AI factories as one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history, and the company continues to point to a massive long-term spending cycle across cloud providers, enterprises and sovereign AI projects.

This is where the hyperscalers capex story matters. Big tech companies are already spending heavily on cloud and AI infrastructure, and Nvidia expects that spending pool to keep growing meaningfully into 2030. Market estimates around the AI infrastructure opportunity often sit in the $3 trillion to $4 trillion range by the end of the decade.

China remains the uncomfortable gap in the story

The China issue is one of the biggest reasons the reaction was not purely positive.

Nvidia said its Q2 outlook assumes no data-centre compute revenue from China. That is a cautious assumption, but it also reminds investors that a major market is still uncertain because of export restrictions and geopolitical pressure.

That matters because China used to be a meaningful part of Nvidia’s growth story. If access remains limited, Nvidia can still grow through the US, Europe, the Middle East, sovereign AI projects and enterprise demand. But the market will keep applying a discount to any revenue stream that depends on political approval.

Technical Outlook

Price is trading around 219 after reaching highs near 236 and then easing into a modest pullback. For now, the most important level is the former breakout zone around 212.

That area matters because it was previously the top of the range. Now it needs to act as support. If prices can hold above 212, the breakout still looks healthy, and the recent weakness would look more like a normal pause after a strong rally rather than the start of a deeper reversal.

If 212 fails, attention would shift quickly toward the 198–200 area. This is a much more important support zone because it sits near the breakout base and the previous supply area. A move back to below that region would weaken the breakout story and suggest that prices rotate back into their old range.

The broader trend still looks constructive. The 126-day moving average, around 188–189, continues to rise and remains the key longer-term trend support. As long as price stays above that zone, the bigger structure remains bullish, even if the stock continues to move through short-term volatility.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits around 238–240, near the recent reaction high. A clean break above that area would show that buyers are regaining control and could reopen the path toward 250–260, where the next psychological and technical resistance zone sits.

Scenario ahead

Holding above 212 would keep the breakout structure intact and suggest that buyers are still defending the move. In that case, price could make another attempt toward 240, with further upside possible if momentum improves.

But if price loses 212, and especially if it breaks below 200, the tone will change. That would point to a broader correction, with the next focus shifting toward the 188–190 trend-support area.

Source: Trading View